Sasol Guides FY2026 EPS Up 65-84%, Adjusted EBITDA R58-62B, but Flags R16.8B in Impairments
SSL has more than doubled off its 52-week low of $4.77.
Summary
Sasol expects FY2026 EPS to surge 65-84% to R17.50-R19.50 and adjusted EBITDA to rise 12-20% to R58-62 billion, but R16.8 billion in impairments and elevated working capital will weigh on free cash flow.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · SSL
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EPS Surge 65-84%
EPS expected between R17.50 and R19.50, up from R10.60 in the prior year, driven by a 7% increase in Brent crude, improved refining margins, and 4% higher sales volumes.
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Adjusted EBITDA R58-62B
Adjusted EBITDA expected to rise 12-20% to R58-62 billion, reflecting stronger operating performance and a supportive macro environment in the final quarter.
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R16.8B in Impairments
Impairments include a fully impaired Secunda liquid fuels refinery (R7.7B capitalized costs impaired), R3.7B on the Polyethylene CGU, and R3.9B on the Mozambique PSA development.
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Free Cash Flow Constrained
Higher year-end working capital from elevated pricing and a fuels inventory build is expected to moderate the improvement in free cash flow generation.
Analysis · SSL · Energy & Transportation
Sasol's trading statement reveals a sharp earnings rebound driven by higher oil prices, improved refining margins, and production gains, but the recovery is tempered by R16.8 billion in impairments — including a fully impaired Secunda refinery — and higher working capital that will limit free cash flow conversion. The 65-84% EPS jump is eye-catching, yet the continued write-downs signal that legacy asset challenges persist even as the macro environment improves.
At the time of this filing, SSL was trading at $10.85 on NYSE in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $7.1B. The 52-week trading range was $4.77 to $14.37. This filing was assessed with neutral market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.