Vail Resorts Lowers Full-Year EBITDA Guidance Amidst 20% Drop in Skier Visits Due to Poor Snowfall
MTN is trading near its 52-week low of $129.41 (10% above the low).
Summary
Vail Resorts reported a significant 20% decline in season-to-date skier visits and lowered its full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance, citing historically poor early season snowfall in the western U.S.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · MTN
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Skier Visits Decline
Season-to-date total skier visits were down 20.0% compared to the prior year period ended January 5, 2025.
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Revenue Impacts
Ski school revenue decreased by 14.9%, dining revenue by 15.9%, and retail/rental revenue by 6.0%. Total lift revenue was down 1.8%, partially offset by season pass allocations.
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Guidance Revision
Full-year Resort Reported EBITDA is now expected to be "just below the low end" of the guidance range issued on September 29, 2025, with potential for further downside.
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Weather Blamed
CEO Rob Katz attributed the poor performance to "one of the worst early season snowfalls in the western U.S. in over 30 years," with Rockies snowfall nearly 60% below the historical 30-year average.
Analysis · MTN · Trade & Services
Vail Resorts' operational performance was severely impacted by adverse weather conditions, particularly in the western U.S. Rockies, leading to a substantial reduction in skier visits and ancillary revenues. The revised guidance, now below the previously issued low end, signals a material negative impact on expected profitability. Investors should monitor future snowfall and visitation trends, especially around key holiday periods, as the company's outlook remains sensitive to weather improvements.
At the time of this filing, MTN was trading at $142.61 on NYSE in the Trade & Services sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.1B. The 52-week trading range was $129.41 to $187.42. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.