REEcycle Investor Deck Reveals $144M 2029 Revenue Target and 60.2M Share Pro Forma Structure
HCAC is trading near its 52-week low of $9.91 (2.7% above the low) on elevated volume (2.1× avg).
Summary
REEcycle's investor presentation discloses $144.1M projected 2029 revenue, a 60.2M share pro forma structure, and Western spot pricing assumptions 4x higher than prior FOB China estimates.
Key Events · M&A and Partnerships · HCAC
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2029 Revenue Target of $144.1M
REEcycle projects revenue of $7.8M (2027E), $83.5M (2028E), and $144.1M (2029E), with Adjusted EBITDA of $77.6M (53.8% margin) in 2029 — a ~164% revenue CAGR from 2027 to 2029.
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Pro Forma Structure: 60.2M Shares at Close
Total issued share capital at closing is 60,166,193 shares (66,528,693 at milestone event), including 35M REEcycle securityholder shares, 8.5M HCAC Sponsor/placement shares, and 2.1M share rights conversion shares.
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Pricing Assumption Shift to Western Spot
REEcycle now models Dy at $1,125/kg and Tb at $4,500/kg (Western spot), versus the previous HCAC model of Dy $290 / Tb $1,140 (FOB China) — a ~4x increase reflecting post-2025 China export controls.
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PIPE Structure: Up to $50M at $10/Share
The PIPE is sized up to ~US$50M at $10.00/share, with $33M allocated to capex for the 160 tpa Duncan, Oklahoma plant, $7M to working capital, and $10M to transaction costs; closing targeted Q4 2026.
Analysis · HCAC · Manufacturing
The October investor presentation attached to this 425 filing provides the first detailed financial projections for the REEcycle merger — $144.1M revenue and $77.6M Adjusted EBITDA by 2029 — along with a pro forma capital structure showing 60.2M shares at closing. The presentation also reveals a significant pricing assumption change: REEcycle now models Dy at $1,125/kg and Tb at $4,500/kg (Western spot), roughly 4x the previous FOB China pricing. This matters because the $400M all-stock deal's economics hinge on these projections, and the higher pricing assumptions materially improve the revenue outlook. The filing also confirms the PIPE structure of up to $50M at $10/share to fund the first 160 tpa plant in Duncan, Oklahoma, with closing targeted for Q4 2026.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 2, 2026, 36.3% of the 1065 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.57%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
Measured one observation per ticker per day, after exclusions. Current figures: Filing Impact Tracker · open dataset
At the time of this filing, HCAC was trading at $10.17 on NASDAQ in the Manufacturing sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $296.4M. The 52-week trading range was $9.91 to $10.15. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.