Genius Sports Tops Q2 Targets and Lifts Full-Year Forecast on Legend Synergies
GENI has more than doubled off its 52-week low of $3.825 on elevated volume (2.3× avg).
Summary
Genius Sports exceeded Q2 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance, raised its full-year outlook, and guided for a strong third quarter, driven by Legend acquisition synergies and expansion into prediction markets.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · GENI
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Q2 Revenue and EBITDA Beat
Revenue came in at $195.5M, surpassing the $185M guidance, while Adjusted EBITDA reached $52.6M against a $45M target, propelled by Legend synergies and prediction markets.
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Full-Year Guidance Raised
The 2026 revenue forecast was lifted to $1.005B–$1.025B from $990M–$1.010B, and the Adjusted EBITDA outlook moved to $285M–$295M from $270M–$280M, implying a margin of roughly 28.6% at the midpoint.
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Strong Q3 and Cash Flow Outlook
Third-quarter guidance points to revenue of approximately $260M and Adjusted EBITDA of about $85M. The year-end cash balance is expected to be roughly $260M, implying more than $100M in cash generation during the second half of 2026.
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Legend Acquisition Integration Progress
Early synergies from the $844M Legend acquisition helped drive a 193% year-over-year surge in Media revenue to $78.2M and contributed to margin expansion.
Analysis · GENI · Trade & Services
A strong second quarter saw revenue reach $195.5M and Adjusted EBITDA hit $52.6M, both ahead of guidance. Early synergies from the Legend acquisition, robust Media execution, and an incremental contribution from prediction markets fueled the outperformance. Management raised the full-year revenue outlook to $1.005B–$1.025B and Adjusted EBITDA to $285M–$295M, implying a 28.6% margin at the midpoint. Third-quarter guidance calls for revenue of approximately $260M and Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $85M, while the year-end cash balance is projected at about $260M, signaling more than $100M in second-half cash generation. The results validate the Legend deal and highlight accelerating profitability, even as the net loss widened to $77M because of non-recurring transaction costs and interest expense tied to the acquisition debt.
At the time of this filing, GENI was trading at $8.31 on NYSE in the Trade & Services sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.2B. The 52-week trading range was $3.83 to $13.73. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.