Popular Q3 EPS $4.21; NPLs Rise on $74M Commercial Loan; 2026 NCO Guidance Raised to 80-90 bps
BPOP sits 49% above its 52-week low of $108.74.
Summary
Popular earned $4.21 per share in Q3 with a 15.80% ROTCE, but NPLs rose to 1.16% on a $74 million commercial loan and full-year NCO guidance was raised to 80-90 bps from 55-70 bps.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · BPOP
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Q3 EPS $4.21, Net Income $266M
Net income of $266 million ($4.21 per diluted share) versus $278 million ($4.35) in Q2 and $211 million ($3.14) a year ago; ROTCE 15.80% and ROA 1.32%.
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NPLs Rise on $74M Commercial Loan
Non-performing loans increased $53 million to $466 million, lifting the NPL ratio to 1.16% from 1.04%, driven by one $74 million commercial relationship partly offset by a $34 million partial charge-off.
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2026 NCO Guidance Raised to 80-90 bps
Full-year NCO guidance moved to 80-90 bps annualized from 55-70 bps and loan growth cut to 2% from 3%-4%, while NII growth guidance rose to ~8.5% and opex growth trimmed to 2%.
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$179M Buyback, Dividend Raised 20%
Repurchased $179 million of stock in Q3 at an average $168.40 per share ($459 million YTD at $150.55) and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.90 from $0.75, paid October 1.
Analysis · BPOP · Finance
Credit is the story here, not the headline earnings. Popular earned $266 million ($4.21 per share) in Q3, down from $278 million in Q2 but up 26% year-over-year, with ROTCE of 15.80% and a 16.06% CET1 ratio. NPLs rose $53 million to $466 million (1.16% of loans) after a single $74 million commercial relationship went bad, partly offset by a $34 million partial charge-off. Management responded by lifting full-year NCO guidance to 80-90 bps from 55-70 bps and cutting loan growth guidance to 2% from 3%-4%, while raising NII growth to ~8.5%. Net charge-offs actually improved to 0.73% from 1.05%, so the damage looks borrower-specific rather than broad deterioration — but the guidance reset tells you management expects more commercial losses ahead. Capital return continues: $179 million of buybacks in the quarter at an average $168.40 and a 20% dividend hike to $0.90.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 22, 2026, 29.4% of the 1560 measured filings Wiseek scored 7 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.47%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
Measured one observation per ticker per day, after exclusions. Current figures: Filing Impact Tracker · open dataset
At the time of this filing, BPOP was trading at $162.25 on NASDAQ in the Finance sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.3B. The 52-week trading range was $108.74 to $179.24. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.