Alaska Air Posts $147M Q3 Loss, Guides Full-Year to ($5.50)-($5.00) EPS on $1.8B Fuel Hit
ALK is trading near its 52-week low of $33.03 (3.4% above the low) on elevated volume (3.1× avg).
Summary
Alaska Air reported a $147 million Q3 2026 net loss and guided to a full-year adjusted loss of ($5.50)-($5.00) per share, with $1.8 billion of fuel costs above plan driving the shortfall despite 14% revenue growth.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · ALK
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Q3 2026 Net Loss of $147M
GAAP loss of ($1.32) per share; adjusted net loss of ($35) million, or ($0.31) per share, with adjusted EPS of $0.36 excluding a $75 million tax catch-up adjustment.
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Revenue Up 14% to $4.3B
Capacity grew 2.4% and unit revenue rose 11.7%, but economic fuel cost of $3.94 per gallon versus the $3.75 plan erased the operating leverage.
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Full-Year Guidance Cut to Loss
Management now expects a 2026 adjusted loss of ($5.50) to ($5.00) per share, including $1.8 billion of fuel expense above plan; Q4 guided to an adjusted loss of ($2.50) to ($2.00) per share.
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Leverage Rises to 5.5x EBITDAR
Adjusted net debt to EBITDAR climbed to 5.5x from 2.9x at year-end 2025, though liquidity stands at $3.3 billion with roughly $20 billion of unencumbered assets.
Analysis · ALK · Energy & Transportation
The bottom line was the weak spot in Alaska's third quarter: a GAAP net loss of $147 million, or ($1.32) per share, with adjusted EPS of $0.36 excluding a $75 million tax catch-up adjustment. Revenue was the bright spot, rising 14% to $4.3 billion on 2.4% capacity growth with unit revenue up 11.7%, but fuel at $3.94 per gallon versus the $3.75 plan consumed those gains. More consequential is the outlook: management now expects a full-year adjusted loss of ($5.50) to ($5.00) per share, including $1.8 billion of fuel expense above plan, and guides Q4 to an adjusted loss of ($2.50) to ($2.00) per share on fuel of $4.65-$4.85 per gallon. That marks a material deterioration from prior expectations and explains why the stock sits near its 52-week low. Leverage has climbed as well, with adjusted net debt to EBITDAR at 5.5x versus 2.9x at year-end 2025, though $3.3 billion of liquidity and roughly $20 billion of unencumbered assets provide cushion. The strategic story — oneworld joint business intent, new Osaka and Papeete routes, premium cabin rollout — remains intact but is not yet offsetting the fuel drag.
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In the 30 days to Oct 20, 2026, 37.4% of the 952 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.87%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, ALK was trading at $34.16 on NYSE in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.8B. The 52-week trading range was $33.03 to $60.63. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.