Waste Connections Beats Q3, Raises 2026 Outlook Again and Lifts Dividend 10%
WCN sits 15% above its 52-week low of $146.89.
Summary
Waste Connections beat Q3 estimates across revenue, EBITDA and EPS, raised its 2026 outlook for the second time this year, lifted the quarterly dividend 10% and disclosed over $1B of year-to-date buybacks.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · WCN
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Q3 Beat Across the Board
Revenue rose to $2.638B from $2.458B; net income was $359.2M ($1.43/diluted share) and adjusted net income $398.9M ($1.58/share), versus $1.44 a year ago.
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Margin Holds at 34% Despite Diesel
Adjusted EBITDA of $895.8M was 34.0% of revenue, up 50 basis points on underlying margin expansion even after a late-quarter diesel price surge.
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Second 2026 Outlook Raise
Full-year guidance now ~$10.09B revenue, ~$3.345B adjusted EBITDA, ~$1.25B capex and $1.40-1.45B adjusted free cash flow.
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Dividend Up 10%, Buybacks Over $1B
Quarterly dividend raised to $0.35/share, the 16th consecutive double-digit annual increase; year-to-date repurchases exceed $1B, or 2.5% of outstanding shares.
Analysis · WCN · Energy & Transportation
Waste Connections beat on every line and raised full-year guidance for the second time this year. Revenue of $2.638B topped the $2.458B prior-year figure, adjusted EBITDA reached $895.8M (34.0% of revenue) despite a late-quarter diesel spike, and adjusted EPS of $1.58 beat the $1.44 prior-year mark. Management now expects ~$10.09B of revenue and ~$3.345B of adjusted EBITDA for 2026, with adjusted free cash flow of $1.40-1.45B. The 10% dividend hike to $0.35/quarter and over $1B of year-to-date buybacks (2.5% of shares outstanding) show the cash generation is being returned rather than hoarded. For a $42B-cap compounder, a second guidance raise plus a double-digit dividend increase is the kind of confirmation that supports the multiple.
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At the time of this filing, WCN was trading at $169.56 on NYSE in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $42.4B. The 52-week trading range was $146.89 to $179.74. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.