United Beats on Q3 Revenue but Guides Q4 EPS to $0.50-$1.50 on $4.80 Fuel
UAL sits 16% above its 52-week low of $84.642.
Summary
United posted record Q3 revenue of $17.9B and $2.54 adjusted EPS, but guided Q4 adjusted EPS to $0.50-$1.50 on a $4.80/gal fuel assumption that sits about $0.45 above consensus — roughly $1.00 of quarterly EPS at stake.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · UAL
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Record Q3 Revenue, Fuel Squeezes Margins
Total operating revenue of $17.9B rose 17.4% year-over-year and set a record, with TRASM up 15.9%. Aircraft fuel expense jumped 61.6% to $4.84B at $3.90/gal, holding adjusted diluted EPS to $2.54 (down 8.6% year-over-year) versus $3.14 GAAP.
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Q4 Guidance Hinges on Fuel Assumption
Q4 2026 adjusted diluted EPS is guided to $0.50-$1.50 on an assumed ~$4.80/gal fuel price versus ~$4.35 consensus. Each $0.01/gal is about 2.5 cents of quarterly EPS, the company says, putting roughly $1.00 of Q4 EPS on the ~$0.45 gap.
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Q4 Revenue Growth Guided Above 20%
Management expects Q4 total operating revenue growth to accelerate versus Q3 and set another record, with unit revenue growth accelerating and unit cost excluding fuel stepping down sequentially. FY2026 adjusted capex is guided to ~$7.5B.
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Revolver Expanded to $5B
On October 16 the revolving credit facility was expanded from $3B to $5B, bringing ending available liquidity to $17.7B against $26.4B of debt and finance lease obligations. Trailing-twelve-month net leverage was 2.4x versus 2.1x a year earlier.
Analysis · UAL · Energy & Transportation
The cost side, not demand, is the problem: revenue set a record at $17.9B (+17.4%) and adjusted EPS of $2.54 landed inside guidance even as fuel expense jumped 61.6% to $4.84B. The real news is the Q4 guide. Adjusted EPS of $0.50-$1.50 assumes jet fuel at ~$4.80/gal versus ~$4.35 in consensus, and management quantifies the gap at roughly $1.00 of quarterly EPS — so the wide range is essentially a fuel bet. Offsetting that, Q4 revenue growth is guided to accelerate past 20% year-over-year, and the revolver was expanded from $3B to $5B on October 16, taking available liquidity to $17.7B against $26.4B of debt and 2.4x net leverage. The earnings call is October 21.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 20, 2026, 37.4% of the 952 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.87%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, UAL was trading at $98.07 on NASDAQ in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $31.8B. The 52-week trading range was $84.64 to $138.77. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.