FreightCar America Slashes FY26 EBITDA Outlook to $15-19M After Losing 1,285-Car Order
RAIL is trading near its 52-week low of $5.81 (1.2% above the low).
Summary
FreightCar America cut FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $15-19M from $36-44M after removing a 1,285-car tank car retrofit order from backlog, with preliminary Q3 revenue of $75-77M versus $160.5M a year ago.
Updates
· Dow Jones Newswires — FreightCar America shares fell 21% to $4.64 after hours following the guidance cut and removal of the 1,285-car retrofit order.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · RAIL
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Tank Car Order Removed From Backlog
1,285 railcars tied to a tank car retrofit order were removed from backlog because the customer is unlikely to meet its contract obligations; deliveries had been scheduled for H2 2026 through 2027.
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FY26 EBITDA Guidance Cut ~60%
Adjusted EBITDA outlook falls to $15-19M from $36-44M, revenue to $370-410M from $410-460M, and deliveries to 3,100-3,300 from 3,500-3,900 railcars.
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Preliminary Q3 Revenue Halved
Q3 2026 revenue of $75-77M versus $160.5M a year ago on 662 deliveries versus 1,304; Adjusted EBITDA of $(0.3)M to $0.3M versus $17.0M.
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Remaining Backlog $284.5M
Backlog after the removal was 2,660 units valued at $284.5M as of September 30, 2026; management says no other orders are affected.
Analysis · RAIL · Manufacturing
The damage is severe: FreightCar America removed a 1,285-car tank car retrofit order from backlog because the customer is unlikely to meet its contract obligations, and FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance drops from $36-44M to $15-19M, roughly a 60% cut at the midpoint. Revenue guidance falls to $370-410M from $410-460M, and preliminary Q3 revenue of $75-77M is less than half last year's $160.5M. Q3 Adjusted EBITDA is roughly breakeven versus $17.0M a year ago. With the stock already trading near its 52-week low of $5.81, this confirms the deterioration rather than surprising the market — but the magnitude of the EBITDA cut is the story. Management says no other backlog orders are affected and points to a lower cost base for 2027, though the remaining $284.5M backlog must now carry the entire outlook.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 19, 2026, 37.9% of the 895 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.87%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
Measured one observation per ticker per day, after exclusions. Current figures: Filing Impact Tracker · open dataset
At the time of this filing, RAIL was trading at $5.88 on NASDAQ in the Manufacturing sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $191.8M. The 52-week trading range was $5.81 to $14.90. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.