Oatly Cuts 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook to $16-20M Despite 9.1% Q3 Revenue Growth
OTLY sits 37% above its 52-week low of $8.01.
Summary
Oatly grew Q3 revenue 9.1% to $243.1 million and lifted gross margin to 34.1%, but cut full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $16-20 million from $25-35 million on North American freight and fuel inflation.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · OTLY
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Q3 Revenue Up 9.1%
Revenue rose to $243.1 million from $222.8 million, with constant-currency growth of 8.9%; Europe & International grew 19.5% while Greater China fell 14.6%.
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Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Cut
Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook cut to $16-20 million from $25-35 million, roughly a 36% reduction at the midpoint, on stronger-than-expected North American fuel and freight inflation.
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Margin and Loss Improve
Gross margin expanded 436 basis points to 34.1% and Q3 net loss narrowed to $27.5 million from $65.3 million; Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was $9.4 million versus $3.1 million.
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Thin Liquidity vs Debt Load
Cash and cash equivalents were $23.3 million at September 30, 2026 against $523.2 million of total outstanding debt; free cash flow was an outflow of $30.7 million for the nine months.
Analysis · OTLY · Manufacturing
The top line grew 9.1% to $243.1 million and gross margin expanded 436 basis points to 34.1%, yet the profit outlook was slashed: full-year Adjusted EBITDA is now $16-20 million versus the prior $25-35 million, a cut of roughly 36% at the midpoint. Management pointed to a stronger and faster wave of fuel and freight inflation in North America, with timing delays hitting Q4 profit. Against $523.2 million of total debt and only $23.3 million of cash, the reduced profit outlook matters more than the revenue beat — the company is still burning cash, with free cash flow an outflow of $30.7 million for the nine months.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 28, 2026, 36.5% of the 953 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.66%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, OTLY was trading at $11.00 on NASDAQ in the Manufacturing sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $375M. The 52-week trading range was $8.01 to $16.20. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.