Moderna Reports Q4 & FY25 Results, Projects 10% Revenue Growth in 2026, Faces US Flu Vaccine Setback
Summary
Moderna reported full Q4 and FY25 financial results, projecting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 and significant cost reductions, while confirming a U.S. FDA Refusal-to-File for its flu vaccine amidst positive pipeline advancements.
Key Events
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Reports Full Q4 and FY25 Financial Results
Moderna reported Q4 2025 revenue of $0.7 billion and a GAAP net loss of $(0.8) billion. Full-year 2025 revenue was $1.9 billion, a 40% decrease from 2024, with a GAAP net loss of $(2.8) billion, an improvement from $(3.6) billion in 2024. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments stood at $8.1 billion as of December 31, 2025, including a $600 million draw on its credit facility.
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Provides 2026 Financial Guidance
The company targets up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 from 2025 levels and expects GAAP operating expense reductions. Projected year-end cash and investments for 2026 are $5.5 to $6.0 billion, excluding any additional credit facility draws.
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U.S. Flu Vaccine Faces Regulatory Setback
Moderna confirmed receiving a Refusal-to-File letter from the U.S. FDA for its seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, following a similar disclosure on February 11, 2026. The company has requested a Type A meeting to discuss the path forward, though the vaccine is under regulatory review in Europe, Canada, and Australia.
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Advances Diverse Pipeline with Positive Updates
The Norovirus Phase 3 trial (mRNA-1403) is fully enrolled with data expected in 2026. The Phase 2 intismeran autogene trial in muscle invasive bladder cancer is fully enrolled, and positive 5-year Phase 2b adjuvant melanoma data was announced, showing a 49% reduction in recurrence or death with KEYTRUDA combination. The Propionic Acidemia (PA) candidate (mRNA-3927) reached target enrollment for its registrational study, with data expected in 2026.
Analysis
Moderna's latest 8-K provides a comprehensive update, detailing its full fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results, which were previously only preliminary. While the company reported a significant decrease in full-year 2025 revenue and continued net losses, it projects up to 10% revenue growth for 2026 and substantial GAAP operating expense reductions, indicating a focus on cost discipline and future expansion. The reiteration of the FDA's Refusal-to-File letter for its seasonal influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010) in the U.S. is a notable setback, though the vaccine is under review in other major markets. This negative regulatory news is balanced by significant positive pipeline advancements, including full enrollment in Norovirus Phase 3 and bladder cancer Phase 2 trials, as well as promising 5-year Phase 2b melanoma data. The appointment of a new Chief Development Officer also signals continued investment in its pipeline. Investors should monitor the company's ability to execute on its 2026 revenue growth and cost reduction targets, as well as the progress of its diverse pipeline.
At the time of this filing, MRNA was trading at $39.60 on NASDAQ in the Life Sciences sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $15.7B. The 52-week trading range was $22.28 to $55.20. This filing was assessed with neutral market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.