Bernstein: IREN's $25B-$30B AI Buildout Spooked Market, But Payback Halved to 2 Years
IREN sits 73% above its 52-week low of $22.04.
Summary
Bernstein analysts argue the market overreacted to IREN's $25B-$30B FY27 AI capex plan, which they say spooked investors despite improving unit economics. The payback period on GPU capex has fallen to ~2 years from ~3 years under the 2025 Microsoft contract. Revenue per IT megawatt is $10M under Microsoft, $20M+ for recent 3-year deals, and $25M for 3-5 year deals in discussion. IREN has $4.7B in contracted cloud ARR including a $700M Nvidia contract expected in 2027, and has secured $19B in funding over 12 months with $14B cash/undrawn. Bernstein maintains Outperform and a $100 price target, implying 147% upside from Thursday's close. This follows yesterday's FY26 results showing a $702.6M net loss from Bitcoin mining impairments and 8x AI cloud revenue growth.
At the time of this announcement, IREN was trading at $38.20 on NASDAQ in the Technology sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $14.5B. The 52-week trading range was $22.04 to $76.87. This news item was assessed with neutral market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10. Source: The Block.