Cox Forecasts Steep US Market Share Losses for GM and Ford
GM sits 50% above its 52-week low of $54.33.
Summary
Cox Automotive projects GM and Ford will post the steepest US market share declines among major automakers through Q3 2026, with Ford sales down 8.8% and GM down 6.2% year-to-date. Ford's share is expected to fall to 12.5% and GM's to 16.7%, while Stellantis gains share and the Detroit Three's combined share hits an all-time low near 36%. Cox estimates GM Q3 sales fell 5.2% and Ford 504,172 units, with Hyundai surpassing Ford at 511,421 units. The forecast attributes the losses to a lack of fuel-efficient hybrids amid high gas prices, with the national average hitting $4.43/gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year earlier, and the Iran war cited as a reason for soaring gasoline prices. Asian brands, including Toyota and Honda, are projected to account for over half of Q3 new vehicle sales, with Toyota's Q3 sales expected to jump 2.2% from a year earlier. Overall US sales in Q3 are estimated at 4.1 million units, down 1% year-over-year, while Stellantis' Q3 sales are estimated to fall 1% to 317,330 units. GM is expected to retain its top spot in the US market. This follows GM's strong Q2 earnings and raised guidance, but the market share erosion signals competitive pressure that could weigh on future North American profitability. Watch for actual Q3 sales results in early October to confirm the forecast.
Updated with a Reuters report · What changed
Updates
· Reuters — Cox estimates GM Q3 sales fell 5.2% and Ford 504,172 units, with Hyundai surpassing Ford at 511,421 units.
- Q3 Sales Estimates — Stellantis' Q3 sales estimated to fall 1% to 317,330 units. Overall US sales in Q3 estimated at 4.1 million units, down 1% year-over-year.
- Market Factors — Iran war cited as a reason for soaring gasoline prices. National average gas price hit $4.43/gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year earlier.
- Asian Brands — Asian brands, including Toyota and Honda, projected to account for over half of Q3 new vehicle sales. Toyota's Q3 sales expected to jump 2.2% from a year earlier.
- GM Position — GM is expected to retain its top spot in the US market.
All 7 details
- Iran war cited as a reason for soaring gasoline prices.
- Asian brands, including Toyota and Honda, projected to account for over half of Q3 new vehicle sales.
- National average gas price hit $4.43/gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year earlier.
- Toyota's Q3 sales expected to jump 2.2% from a year earlier.
- GM is expected to retain its top spot in the US market.
- Stellantis' Q3 sales estimated to fall 1% to 317,330 units.
- Overall US sales in Q3 estimated at 4.1 million units, down 1% year-over-year.
At the time of this announcement, GM was trading at $81.46 on NYSE in the Manufacturing sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $71.5B. The 52-week trading range was $54.33 to $91.85. This news item was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10. Source: Reuters.