GFL Beats Q3, Raises 2026 Guidance Third Time; Take-Private Bids Due Nov 9
GFL sits 31% above its 52-week low of $33.33.
Summary
GFL beat Q3 estimates, raised 2026 guidance for the third time and disclosed a Special Committee reviewing unsolicited take-private proposals with a November 9 deadline for updated bids.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · GFL
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Q3 Beat, Guidance Raised Again
Revenue rose 27.2% to C$2,155.3M and Adjusted EBITDA 26.8% to C$678.7M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance lifted to C$8,055-8,075M from C$7,510-7,530M and Adjusted EBITDA to C$2,490-2,495M from C$2,290M.
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Take-Private Bids Due November 9
A Special Committee of independent directors is reviewing unsolicited inbound proposals to take GFL private and has given interested parties a final deadline of November 9, 2026 to deliver updated proposals.
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Net Loss Despite EBITDA Growth
Net loss from continuing operations was C$28.0M in Q3 2026 versus C$90.4M of income a year earlier, with a C$15.0M non-cash Call Option remeasurement and C$46.5M of transaction costs weighing on the result.
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Leverage Rises After SECURE Deal
Net Leverage was 3.8x at September 30, 2026 versus 3.4x at December 31, 2025, after year-to-date business acquisitions of C$2,569.8M net of cash; guidance targets mid-3s by year-end.
Analysis · GFL · Energy & Transportation
GFL beat on every line and lifted full-year 2026 guidance for the third time this year — revenue to C$8,055-8,075M from C$7,510-7,530M, Adjusted EBITDA to C$2,490-2,495M from C$2,290M, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow to about C$1,020M from about C$900M. The bigger swing factor is buried in the CEO quote: a Special Committee of independent directors is reviewing unsolicited take-private proposals from leading global institutional investors and has set a hard November 9, 2026 deadline for updated bids. That turns this from a good earnings print into a potential change-of-control event. Against that, the quarter showed a C$28.0M net loss from continuing operations versus C$90.4M of income a year ago, driven by higher interest, a C$15.0M Call Option remeasurement and acquisition costs, and Net Leverage rose to 3.8x from 3.4x after the SECURE deal. The company repurchased no shares in the quarter.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 29, 2026, 47.7% of the 235 measured filings Wiseek scored 9 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -1.00%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, GFL was trading at $43.75 on NYSE in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $19B. The 52-week trading range was $33.33 to $46.77. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 9 out of 10.