Enphase Q3 EPS $0.17; Q4 Revenue Guided to $225M-$255M as Sell-Through Stalls
ENPH is trading near its 52-week low of $25.775 (5.6% above the low) on elevated volume (2.6× avg).
Summary
Enphase reported Q3 revenue of $293.3M and diluted EPS of $0.17, then guided Q4 revenue to $225M-$255M on a 10% sell-through decline. The AI data-center transformer pipeline doubled to over 50 partners, but revenue from it is not expected before 2028.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · ENPH
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Q3 Revenue Flat, Sell-Through Misses
Revenue was $293.3M versus $291.9M in Q2 and $410.4M a year ago; global sell-through rose only about 1% against a 10% growth expectation, and U.S. sell-through fell 35% year-over-year.
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Q4 Guidance Cut on Demand
Q4 revenue guided to $225.0M-$255.0M, including about $51.2M of safe harbor revenue, assuming sell-through declines 10% sequentially; non-GAAP gross margin guided to 40.0%-43.0% from 45.0%.
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Impairment Trims EPS by $0.15
GAAP diluted EPS of $0.17 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.41 were each reduced by $0.15 and $0.14 respectively due to an impairment in investments; GAAP net income was $23.4M.
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IQ SST Pipeline Doubles to 50+
The IQ Solid-State Transformer customer and partner pipeline more than doubled to over 50, with a leading hyperscaler and a global AI computing leader engaged; customer pilots are targeted for 2027 and commercial shipments for 2028.
Analysis · ENPH · Manufacturing
The miss was on demand, not price: revenue of $293.3M was flat sequentially but down from $410.4M a year ago, as global sell-through rose only about 1% against a 10% growth expectation and U.S. sell-through fell 35% year-over-year. Management's Q4 guide of $225M-$255M assumes sell-through drops another 10%, so the core residential solar business is still shrinking. Gross margin holds at 45.0% non-GAAP, but only because tariff refunds and mix are helping; management flags roughly 2.0 points of reciprocal tariff drag in Q4. The offsetting story is the IQ Solid-State Transformer: the pipeline more than doubled to over 50 partners, with a hyperscaler and a global AI computing leader engaged, though pilots are not until 2027 and commercial shipments 2028. With $931.8M of cash and only $0.1M of quarterly operating cash flow, the balance sheet buys time for that data-center bet to mature.
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At the time of this filing, ENPH was trading at $27.23 on NASDAQ in the Manufacturing sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $3.9B. The 52-week trading range was $25.78 to $73.74. This filing was assessed with negative market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.