Cosmos Health Guides Q4 U.S. Revenue to ~$15M at 70% Margin, Reaffirms >$90M 2026
COSM sits 69% above its 52-week low of $0.162 on light trading volume (0.2× avg).
Summary
Cosmos Health guided Q4 2026 U.S. revenue to ~$15M with ~$10.5M gross profit at a ~70% margin, citing 8,940 active subscriptions (up 42% in five days), and reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue above $90M.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · COSM
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Q4 U.S. Revenue Guided to ~$15M
Management expects ~$15M of Q4 2026 U.S. revenue and ~$10.5M of gross profit at an ~70% gross margin, split into ~$11.5M subscription revenue and ~$3.5M one-time purchases.
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Subscriptions Up 42% in Five Days
Active U.S. subscriptions reached 8,940 as of October 19, up from 6,287 on October 14, with monthly subscription value of $1,325,338, up 44% from $919,945.
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2026 Outlook Reaffirmed Above $90M
Full-year 2026 revenue is expected to surpass $90M, implying Q4 revenue of ~$35.7M or more, up ~81% from the ~$19.7M reported in Q4 2025.
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2029 Targets Set at $200.6M Revenue
The CEO letter sets 2029 guidance of $200.6M revenue, $71.2M gross profit, $44.2M adjusted EBITDA and $31.0M net income, with the goal of becoming self-funding by 2027.
Analysis · COSM · Trade & Services
The investment case now hinges on a new, high-margin U.S. subscription business layered atop a low-margin distribution base. Management expects ~$15M of Q4 U.S. revenue at ~70% gross margin — roughly $10.5M of gross profit — versus a company-wide gross margin of 12.1% in fiscal 2025. If the subscription ramp holds, group margins re-rate; if it stalls, the 2029 target of $200.6M revenue and $44.2M adjusted EBITDA is unreachable. These are preliminary, unaudited platform data, and the company still carries going-concern doubt and material weakness disclosures from its August 10-Q, so execution and financing risk remain the counterweight.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 22, 2026, 29.4% of the 1539 measured filings Wiseek scored 7 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.45%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, COSM was trading at $0.27 on NASDAQ in the Trade & Services sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $27.6M. The 52-week trading range was $0.16 to $1.07. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.