Cleveland-Cliffs Q3 EBITDA Beats at $612M; 2027 Outlook Raised Above $4B
CLF sits 78% above its 52-week low of $7.73.
Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 net income of $165M and adjusted EBITDA of $612M, beating its own $575M guidance, and guided Q4 EBITDA to about $715M while projecting 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · CLF
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Q3 Results Swing to Profit
Revenue of $5.6B and GAAP net income of $165M ($0.26 per diluted share), versus a $134M net loss in Q2 2026.
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EBITDA Beats Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA of $612M topped the $575M guidance and rose $326M from Q2's $286M; average selling price rose to $1,177 per net ton from $1,124.
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2027 EBITDA Outlook Above $4B
Management expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion on signed contracts and prevailing index price forecasts, with Q4 2026 guided to about $715M.
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Stelco Galvanizing Lines Idled
Galvanizing lines at Stelco are indefinitely idled due to an oversupplied Canadian galvanized market; total Stelco tonnage is maintained and about 2,000 Canadian jobs are preserved.
Analysis · CLF · Energy & Transportation
Cleveland-Cliffs swung from a $134M Q2 net loss to $165M of Q3 net income, and adjusted EBITDA of $612M came in above the $575M guidance given three months ago. The bigger news is the 2027 outlook: management now expects adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, materially above its prior view, citing signed contracts and favorable index price forecasts. That supports the stated path to under 2.5x net debt to EBITDA by mid-2027 and a major Q4 debt reduction. The offset is Stelco, where the company is indefinitely idling galvanizing lines because Canada has not addressed an oversupplied galvanized market — though total Stelco tonnage is maintained and roughly 2,000 Canadian jobs are preserved.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 19, 2026, 37.9% of the 895 measured filings Wiseek scored 8 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.87%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, CLF was trading at $13.75 on NYSE in the Energy & Transportation sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $6.9B. The 52-week trading range was $7.73 to $16.70. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.