Carrier Global Reports Mixed Q4, Strong Full-Year Cash Flow, and Positive 2026 Outlook
Summary
Carrier Global reported a decline in Q4 adjusted EPS but a substantial increase in full-year free cash flow, alongside positive adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance for 2026.
Key Events
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Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS Decline
Adjusted EPS from continuing operations decreased 37% to $0.34 in Q4 2025 compared to $0.54 in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower volume in residential businesses.
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Significant Free Cash Flow Improvement
Full-year 2025 free cash flow surged to $2.121 billion, a substantial increase from $30 million in 2024. Q4 2025 free cash flow was $909 million, up from a negative $89 million in Q4 2024.
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Positive 2026 Financial Outlook
Carrier provided 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted EPS of approximately $2.80 and free cash flow of approximately $2 billion, indicating expected growth despite residential market challenges.
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Strategic Business Resilience
The company reported continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC orders (up nearly 50% in Q4) and aftermarket businesses, offsetting weakness in residential and light commercial segments.
Analysis
Carrier Global's latest earnings report presents a mixed financial picture. While the fourth quarter saw a notable decline in adjusted EPS and operating profit, primarily due to challenges in residential markets and distributor destocking, the company delivered exceptionally strong free cash flow for both the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. The positive 2026 guidance, projecting growth in adjusted EPS and continued robust free cash flow, suggests resilience and strategic strength in its commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments. Investors will likely balance the immediate quarterly headwinds against the significant cash generation and the optimistic forward outlook for the company's core growth areas.
At the time of this filing, CARR was trading at $59.00 on NYSE in the Technology sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $53.5B. The 52-week trading range was $50.24 to $81.09. This filing was assessed with neutral market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.