Baldwin Posts Preliminary Q3 Revenue of $480.3M, Up 31%, Ahead of $32.50 Take-Private
BWIN has more than doubled off its 52-week low of $15.88 on light trading volume (0.3× avg).
Summary
Baldwin reported preliminary Q3 2026 revenue of $480.3 million (up 31%) and adjusted EBITDA of $106.9 million (up 47%), with organic growth of 6% and a wider $81.6 million net loss. The results land while the company awaits its $32.50-per-share cash take-private, expected to close in Q1 2027.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · BWIN
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Preliminary Q3 Revenue Up 31%
Total revenue of $480.3 million versus $365.4 million a year earlier, with organic revenue growth of 6%.
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Adjusted EBITDA Jumps 47%
Adjusted EBITDA of $106.9 million lifted margin to 22.2%, up 240 basis points year-over-year; GAAP net loss widened to $81.6 million from $30.2 million.
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Go-Private Costs Hit the P&L
$21.0 million of go-private costs were excluded from adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, alongside $17.6 million of contingent consideration remeasurement.
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Leverage at 4.4x With $289M Revolver Room
Total debt of $2.465 billion against $188.6 million of cash; net leverage 4.4x versus the company's sub-4.0x target.
Analysis · BWIN · Finance
The operating business is holding up even as the company is being sold: revenue rose 31% to $480.3 million and adjusted EBITDA climbed 47% to $106.9 million, a 22.2% margin. The catch is quality of growth — organic revenue grew only 6%, and management peels that back to 8.3% once the January 2026 CAC, Obie and Capstone partnerships are counted and Medicare disruption is excluded. GAAP net loss widened to $81.6 million from $30.2 million, driven largely by $21.0 million of go-private costs and higher amortization and interest. With a $32.50-per-share cash merger pending and expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, these results matter less as a standalone valuation driver and more as confirmation that the buyer is getting a business whose EBITDA is still growing double digits while leverage sits at 4.4x net. The stock at $31.99 already trades within a hair of the deal price, so the numbers are unlikely to move shares much unless they signal a risk to closing.
How filings like this one have moved
In the 30 days to Oct 27, 2026, 29.9% of the 1374 measured filings Wiseek scored 7 moved their stock by 5% or more by the next session's close. The median move was -0.12%. These are measured outcomes after filings of this importance, not a forecast for this one.
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At the time of this filing, BWIN was trading at $31.99 on NASDAQ in the Finance sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $4.5B. The 52-week trading range was $15.88 to $32.71. This filing was assessed with neutral market sentiment and an importance score of 7 out of 10.