Aurora Sets 2030 Targets: 30,000 Driverless Trucks, $5B+ Revenue, ~60% Gross Margin
AUR sits 79% above its 52-week low of $3.6.
Summary
Aurora's Analyst and Investor Day unveiled first-time long-term targets: 30,000+ driverless trucks, $5B+ revenue, and ~60% gross margin by 2030, with breakeven gross margin expected in 1H 2027 and positive free cash flow exiting 2028.
Key Events · Earnings and Guidance · AUR
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2030 Vision Unveiled
Aurora targets more than 30,000 driverless trucks in operation by 2030, generating $5B+ in annual revenue at ~60% target gross margin.
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Path to Profitability
Management expects breakeven gross margin on a run-rate basis in 1H 2027 at ~500 trucks and positive free cash flow on a run-rate basis exiting 2028.
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FY26 Revenue Guidance
Company guided to $14-16M in FY26 revenue and an $80M FY26 exit revenue run-rate, up from $2M in Q2 2026 revenue.
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Fleet Expansion Roadmap
Fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks, anticipating >1,000 by end of 2027 and >30,000 by 2030.
Analysis · AUR · Technology
At its Analyst and Investor Day, Aurora put hard numbers on its long-term roadmap for the first time. Management is targeting more than 30,000 driverless trucks in operation by 2030, generating over $5 billion in annual revenue at roughly 60% gross margin, with breakeven gross margin expected in the first half of 2027 and positive free cash flow on a run-rate basis exiting 2028. Near-term, the company guided to $14-16 million in FY26 revenue and an $80 million exit run-rate, while confirming it is fully allocated to exit 2026 with 200 driverless trucks. These are ambitious targets for a company that reported just $2 million in quarterly revenue and a $270 million net loss in Q2 2026, so the presentation frames the scale-up path investors will now hold management to. The event also showcased customer traction — Hirschbach's intent to own and operate 500 trucks under a DaaS agreement beginning in 2027 — and manufacturing progress with Roush targeting 20 truck upfits per week in October.
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At the time of this filing, AUR was trading at $6.46 on NASDAQ in the Technology sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $12.9B. The 52-week trading range was $3.60 to $8.57. This filing was assessed with positive market sentiment and an importance score of 8 out of 10.